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Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/November-December
November (soon will) begin. We might get to Vallerie or William before the season is out, but if they do come, I hope they are fishspinners. Sandy did enough. =( Ryan1000 17:09, October 31, 2012 (UTC) Probably a 2011 or 2004 like November, but in no way are we going to have an ending like 1994, 2001, or 2005 did. AndrewTalk To Me 20:52, October 31, 2012 (UTC) : Agreed, Andy. But... I don't think we will get to Val this season, especially w/ an El nino (Remember the Amy Winehouse song? R.I.P. Amy Winehouse love your music) I think next year will be more active :o and happy halloween ppl! 21:44, October 31, 2012 (UTC) ::: The El Nino retreated earlier on, so we could still have 1-2 more storms until 2012 is over. I`d actually be surprised if we don`t. But if we get another storm or two this year, I hope they stay at sea. Ryan1000 00:41, November 1, 2012 (UTC) ::: Expect two storms for November as the Gfs and Euro are developing Valerie near the Azores and for 2 or 3 straight run Gfs develop William in the Southwestern Caribbean but this one look to move west to CA instead of Cuba but we will see.just two more before we end the list.Allanjeffs 02:06, November 1, 2012 (UTC) ::: Now that is officially November the last month of the hurricane season and that the month start with my birthday that is today I am almost sure that we will end this list this year.Allanjeffs 06:18, November 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Well, if we do get Valerie and William, I hope they will not do too much regarding impacts. Sandy was more than enough. Even if a storm hits Central America, hopefully it wont cause too much trouble. If a storm forms near the Azores, it rarely does anything severe. Also, it is official. Sandy is now the deadliest storm of the 2010s decade in ATL, with 165 deaths, surpassing 2010s Matthew which caused 143. Ryan1000 14:04, November 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Yeah that is sad hope there is no more deaths by Sandy and more is that the Jamaican goverment says that Sandy caused 5 billion dollars in damage instead of the number shown in wiki.Allanjeffs 20:28, November 1, 2012 (UTC) The 5 billion in damage is in Jamacia's dollars, not U.S. dollars. But it'll be retired anyways. Damage in the U.S. is currently estimated to be at LEAST 20 billion in damage. However, it could be as high as 55 billion, and when all is said and done, it could even be more than that. Ryan1000 22:10, November 1, 2012 (UTC) : :( I know... :( I've been talking about hurricane sandy on Toontown Hall... really sad... to hear a lot of bad stuff.... let's hope nyc and jersey shore (snooki?) will get back to normal... (Psst! What do you call a hurricane that covers the whole place with sand? SANDY! :D) Next time if a storm covers the place with wood, he should be called Woody (the Woodpecker?) 23:19, November 1, 2012 (UTC) Anyways, we could be seeing a storm or two in the next week, according to GFS and the ECMWF, we could see a storm over the Azores and also in the Caribbean. For the second time in ATL history, and for the 4th time in the history of the western hemisphere, we could run the table. Maybe not the greeks, but Valerie and William could indeed come. Ryan1000 01:19, November 2, 2012 (UTC) which has been the other 2 Ryan I know 2005 but are you refering to the years in the Eastern Pacific.Allanjeffs 02:32, November 2, 2012 (UTC) 2012 would be the 4th time. And yes, I was counting EPac Allan. Two EPac seasons have run the table before (1983 and 1992, though 1983 only got to the "W" name at the time, because x, y, and z names weren't added until 1985, when that year got to Xina). And of course, there's '05. Ryan1000 17:41, November 2, 2012 (UTC) ::Well, apparently we've already archived Sandy. Again, guys we should leave these storm sections up for at least a week after the storm, longer for historic events like this where there is a lot to talk about. Anyway, the level of devastation wrought by this storm was beyond my worst fears. This was the worst case scenario for a New York City/New Jersey hurricane that scientists have been talking about for years. Like Katrina and New Orleans, this was an "it could happen tomorrow" storm. I didn't think I'd see the fabled "New York Hurricane" in my lifetime because it felt like the activity was shifting to the south. And when Irene hit last year, I thought that was it; that was the 100 year storm and the coast largely dodged the bullet. Turns out Irene was just a warning. In an eerie foreshadowing, back in 2008, shortly after Hurricane Ike devastated Texas, I wrote a fictional account of a "Hurricane Michael" that would devastate New York City on September 24, 2012. Well here we are in 2012, and while the real Hurricane Michael hit nothing but ocean, the Tri-State area was devastated by a hurricane...exactly one month after my fictional "Hurricane Michael" did. You will never see weather event like this again in your lifetime. The meteorological evolution of this event was scarcely believable and virtually impossible. An already powerful hurricane moved under an area of incredible upper level divergence (which acts to lower the pressure at the surface an promote storm development), sandwiched between two upper level jetstream maxima. That upper level pattern would've generated a powerful nor'easter from scratch even if Sandy hadn't shown up. Sandy moved under this pattern at absolutely the perfect time, essentially merging with an exploding nor'easter, to become a superstorm. It really was the "perfect storm", much more so than the 1991 storm that now bears that name. Sandy will go down as one of the worst hurricanes in US history, at least in terms of damage. It will be talked about for generations to come and be the subject of extensive academic study. I hope you all keep the people affected by this disaster in your thoughts and prayers. Many of them have a long and difficult road ahead. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:34, November 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::Any further discussion regarding Sandy and her record-setting impacts can be continued in the retirements section below if you so wish; since she's a certain canidate for retirement, we could discuss about her aftermath there. I think the road to recovery will be many years, or even decades, for parts of New York City and elsewhere on the east coast. We might get a storm or two in November, but I wouldn't expect them to match a candle to the carnage wrought by Sandy. Katrina and Sandy never ''directly hit the cities that were feared to one day be destroyed by hurricanes, but they were close enough, and the damage wrought by both storms was unimaginably enormous. Being the second-costliest hurricane in U.S. history, she is all but certain to be retired. It doesn't matter if she was non-tropical, or turning extratropical, when she hit. She was bad enough and is going to be remebered for a long time to come. Ryan1000 15:05, November 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::For the sixth time in a row the Gfs develops Valerie near Bermuda and each time it bring it closer and from the sixth times four of thems it also develops william so that means that we could at least see one more name storm in the Atlantic before all is done.Allanjeffs 20:30, November 5, 2012 (UTC) I still haven't seen anything yet, but I see one coming soon. 2012 may not be over, but we definitely won't see a storm like Sandy for the remainder of this season. Ryan1000 21:33, November 5, 2012 (UTC) : Good! I don't want a Valerie or a Prince Will.i.am storm this season. I'm fed up of these hurricanes. Hopefully, the next atlantic storm will be called Andrea. 2013 looks like a 2010 to me, with a lot of majors, but this year we saw a lot of averagers (cat 1 and 2.) LOOOOL 22:11, November 6, 2012 (UTC) : @Liz: Unfortunately, I still predict 2012 will run the table like 2005 and the 1983 and 1992 EPac seasons did. All we need is a 2-storm November, or one storm in November and an off-season storm to hit William. A 3-storm November or any other similar combo will result in a Tropical Storm Alpha. But at best, I think we'll reach William. 2013 seems like a re-1933 to me. And also, Sandy and Gordon could both be upgraded to majors, Beryl to a hurricane, and 98L and 94L could become unnamed storms, so we could already be at 21-11-3 by now. AndrewTalk To Me 00:00, November 7, 2012 (UTC) ::: I don't think all the post-season upgrades will happen; I'm only really expecting 98L of July to become TS 5. I'm not expecting the others to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do. There's been nothing out for the first week of November, but the month still has 3 weeks left until it's all over. So I wouldn't expect us to remain dead forever. Two more storms still seems very possible. Ryan1000 22:42, November 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::: 20 days till the season ends.Isaac829 17:58, November 11, 2012 (UTC) AOI:Off Africa ::: There is an area that has now 10% of development that could be our Valerie :)Allanjeffs 20:30, November 8, 2012 (UTC) Per what you said Allan...And yep, here comes Val. I think she'll probrably only be a weak TS from this AOI, but I don't ever recall a November storm ever forming this far east in the Atlantic. Also, as a side note, TWC is naming their winter storms now. The one off the East Coast is Athena, and the one near Montana is Brutus. I don't know if they'll retire winter storm names like they do hurricane names, but it would be cool. Ryan1000 21:14, November 8, 2012 (UTC) I don't think they will retire names. I think they come out a new list every year, like Southwest Indian Ocean, Hopefully Val forms :) Isaac829 21:32, November 8, 2012 (UTC) Looks like we'll tie 1933. AndrewTalk To Me 21:51, November 8, 2012 (UTC) :The first time since 2005, hopefully we will have Valerie. The system looks really healthy right now, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets upgraded to 50% or higher by tomorrow. Yeah, I love how the Weather Channel names winter storms. If any of your are on Wikipedia, please visit this forum, many users are attacking the idea of a page for these systems. Help is much appreciated. :) STO12 (talk) 22:22, November 8, 2012 (UTC) ::I don't get the "hopefully" part. I don't want Valerie to form. I'm literally, FED UP of hurricanes so far. I've had enough. UGH -_- 23:23, November 8, 2012 (UTC) ::I really hope it forms it will be a fish any way so that is a good think :) btw I really love the idea that the winter storms are name so exciting but I doubt they will be retire as they are not official they are only use by the weather channel only if they want to retire them.Allanjeffs 00:02, November 9, 2012 (UTC) ::Stiill at 10% as of 8 PM EDT. And Liz, 2012 seems active, but it doesn't hold a candle to seasons like 2005, 2004, 2003, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, 1969, or 2008 ACE wise. AndrewTalk To Me 01:42, November 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yeah, although 2012 has had a lot of named storms, like 2011, most of them were weak, short-lived, or remained at sea. In terms of ACE, this year kinda sucked. None of the first 8 named storms last year became hurricanes. That killed the overall ACE, while we didn't have too many hurricanes or majors overall. Last year ended up with more majors than this year, though fewer hurricanes. Out of 10 hurricanes in the midst of 19 named storms, only one of them became a major in 2012 (Michael, and he barely made the upgrade for 6 hours). I'm pretty sure this will become Val. Maybe in a few more days though. Ryan1000 04:29, November 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::If the Aoi that becomes Patty develop with no little to no model support this one that has one major model (GFS ) developing, and more model support I am almost sure it will develop even though I only think it would be a STS or td.Allanjeffs 05:05, November 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Now up to 20%. 12:57, November 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::Also, if this becomes Val, the GFS and Euro are picking up on an area of disturbed weather that could develop next week halfway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. That future storm will probrably pull a Tony and remain at sea, but if that happens, we'll get to William, 21 named storms. Let's cross our fingers. =) Ryan1000 18:14, November 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::The 18z Gfs is on crack it develops 4 tropical storms 2 sub tropicals and 2 tropicals the first one is of our AOI which is the weakest of the four.Base on this Valerie is very probable from what I look every run has bring Valerie from a disturbance or other, and it has develop William in 1 of 2 runs every time it the gfs runs.Allanjeffs 04:39, November 10, 2012 (UTC) I don't think all of them will form, but I do expect Valerie to form out of this or the next AOI over PR, and the one after that could become William. I will be amazed if we can reach Alpha in November though. It's not very likely, but it would be incredible to see. Off-topic, but there is also an area of thunderstorms that could be developing in the SWIO, though it probrably won't cause significant damage on land. Ryan1000 11:27, November 10, 2012 (UTC) Down to Near 0% due to upper level winds. AndrewTalk To Me 11:53, November 10, 2012 (UTC) : Oh well, Val will come later.Isaac829 18:59, November 10, 2012 (UTC) : All of us should start checking the cold front in the Central Atlantic both the Gfs and Ecmwf develop the tail of it into Valerie so by Tuesday or Wenesday we couid have Valerie.Allanjeffs 19:21, November 10, 2012 (UTC) ::: It'll be interesting to see what happens next week in that area of the ATL. I don't think Valerie-to be will do much in the area, but flooding could possibly be a concern for interests in the area. After that, another storm could develop in the Caribbean after that and become William for 21 storms. Ryan1000 00:35, November 11, 2012 (UTC) ::: I agree but I don`t think William will form in the Caribbean.Allanjeffs 00:51, November 11, 2012 (UTC) If it doesn't, William might form in a similar manner to where Valerie might form next Wensday, off a cold front or in one of the thuderstorms in the easternmost Atlantic/Azores. Ryan1000 13:59, November 11, 2012 (UTC) that is what I was thinking. I think the Caribbean has shut for tropical activity.Allanjeffs 19:34, November 11, 2012 (UTC) It looks like the Caribbean is slowing down, but the season as a whole is not over yet. There is still the potential for two more storms until the season shuts down for good. Ryan1000 23:24, November 11, 2012 (UTC) Wait, where is everyone predicting Valerie? I've seen a satellite image of the end of the current cold front in the middle of the Atlantic, but nothing seems to potentially develop. Is it this cold front? Or the next one? Or possibly one in the future? STO12 (talk) 23:45, November 11, 2012 (UTC) :There's a area of convection northeast of Puerto Rico that has a slim chance of becoming something by the 14th as it moves parellel to the the east coast, but I highly dubt that anything tropical will form in the next week. Supportstorm (talk) 01:29, November 12, 2012 (UTC) :I actually think it would form just give it two days.Allanjeffs 20:27, November 12, 2012 (UTC) Interesting low to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Looks almost like a subtropical storm now. Too bad the wind shear is likely to kill the thing before it can do anything. Supportstorm (talk) 21:29, November 13, 2012 (UTC) That low over the Azores seems to be a subtropical storm, but I'm not sure if it will develop. The thunderstorms near that cold front off the east coast and those near Cape Verde probrably won't develop now; they likely missed their chance. Still two weeks of hurricane season left...fingers still crossed for Valerie/William. Ryan1000 17:26, November 14, 2012 (UTC) And...there hasn't been much editing on this forum as of late. There's only one week left of hurricane season, and there isn't likely to be any more storms from here on out. I had the feeling we would get one or two more storms until 2012 would end, but it seems November was dead quiet. This is the first dead November for the Atlantic since the 2006 season, and the first non-El Nino year to lack any storms in the month since the 1990 season. I'm still excited about what Eric will do for the hall of fame page next year, if any of you haven't already picked your 2012 nominees. Ryan1000 15:04, November 23, 2012 (UTC) December Just around the corner, but I think the season is over anyways. There is an outside chance of a post-season surprise, but don't count on it. Ryan1000 21:29, November 29, 2012 (UTC) 91L.INVEST 91L.INVEST Ah, the Atlantic is trying to make me eat my words. I didn't think this would become anything, but it's at 20% and may become Valerie. We had an impressive season, but maybe it's not quite over yet. Ryan1000 20:32, November 30, 2012 (UTC) Told you should be at code orange or red in the next update looks like the curse of the last two years will be broken.Allanjeffs 23:11, November 30, 2012 (UTC) Up to 30%Allanjeffs 23:46, November 30, 2012 (UTC) It could most definantely become Valerie, briefly, before entering a less favorable environment that is far to it's north. Two pre-season systems from earlier this year, and most likely a post-season system as we head into the weekend. 2012 is very strange indeed. STO12 (talk) 23:48, November 30, 2012 (UTC) Even so, after this, the models are also picking up on another area of low pressure north of the Puerto Rico area that could become William too. That storm has a less likely chance of becoming named than this storm, but maybe 2012 might run the table after all. Ryan1000 01:56, December 1, 2012 (UTC) Looks like we may see our first post-season storm in five years. Also, here are two other special features 2012 will have: if 91L becomes a storm, this will not only make 2012 the sixth season since 1851 to have both a pre-season and a post-season storm, after 1887, 1911, 1953, 2003, and 2007, 2012 will also tie 1933 as the second most active Atlantic hurricane season ever. And if the Puerto Rico low pressure area becomes a storm, too, 2012 will not only tie 1887 and 2003 for the most active December since 1851 and tie 1887 for the most off-season storms, but 2012 will also be the second season since 1851 (after 1887) to have two off-seasons form both before and after the season. What a wild 2012 it's been!!!! AndrewTalk To Me 02:41, December 1, 2012 (UTC) If Valerie and Willam form this will be the second most active season in recorded history would it make it let see.Allanjeffs 04:05, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::Looks like the Atlantic is throwing an end-of-season party out there. This has really gotten interesting. This thing has found itself a nice little ridge to park under and that's producing some nice divergence over the storm. So we could really have something here. There is an incredibly strong jet of shear to the south of it (an apocalyptic 90 knot maximum is not too far to the southwest), but it doesn't appear to be affecting the storm yet. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop this storm and, curiously, another storm right behind it. If that forecast verifies, we may run the table. That shear may begin to undercut this storm before too long, so it can't dilly-dally, but this one definitely has a chance to become Valerie. And it's gonna be interesting to see what happens with that feature that's projected to follow behind 91 in a few days. Ryan, I still haven't figured out what I'm going to do about the HOF. I know I've really drug my feet on it and we haven't gotten anything done. The way we've been doing it so far has felt really disorganized and I'm not sure what to do about it. I've got finals coming up and Christmas after that. If I can't get it done before the end of the year, I'll definitely have time in January. We'll figure something out. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:02, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::Up to '''40%'. I still don't know if this will become Valerie. AndrewTalk To Me 13:08, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::I'm still quite interested in it. Anyways, with this storm, we may have a chance at a few off-season surprises with this and the low north of the lessers, but they will probrably be fishspinners if anything. Aside from running the table, I don't expect any impacts from these storms. Sandy was the big one of this season, and certainly a storm I won't ever forget (as a side note, the post-season report section is now open in the betting pools). Ryan1000 15:51, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Now 50% :D Isaac829 15:59, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::::What do you mean ":D?" Hurricane are horrid! ugggggggh i dont want another pesky hurricane valerie!!!! i want andrea! hopefully, this will dissipate anytime soon! im fed up with 2012 ahs!! i want andrea!! :o anyways, i think this will die down or become wintry. anyways.... i still am predicting an extreme active 2013. ive had enough already! bring on the winter storms! anyway..... hopefully this wont become a Storm. 18:58, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Well, it's not affecting land anyways, so we want it to make something of itself before it dies. :P Anyways, this storm seems to be getting it's act together, Valerie could very well be on her way very soon. Ryan1000 20:15, December 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::91L is still at 40%, though if you look at the latest sattelite imagery, it looks like it's Valerie. Might be upgraded post-season if not operationally. Ryan1000 01:11, December 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::::0% now.Isaac829 01:22, December 3, 2012 (UTC) I think it's safe to say that the 2012 season has pretty much ended. STO12 (talk) 03:09, December 4, 2012 (UTC) Unless 98L in late July and 94L in late September are upgraded...AndrewTalk To Me 03:31, December 4, 2012 (UTC) Michael and Oscar TCRs are out I am not sure if the previous invests are going to be upgraded.Allanjeffs 21:20, December 4, 2012 (UTC) Maybe one or two of them, even 91L might have briefly been subtropical. However, nothing is certain. Ryan1000 02:58, December 5, 2012 (UTC) Ernesto is up to cat 2 strength.Allanjeffs 21:36, December 6, 2012 (UTC) You could put that in the post-season changes section if you want to instead. I wasn't too surprised that happened, but there are other upgrades I see as more likely. This section is about post-season activity. There is a hybrid-subtropical low in the Northeastern Atlantic right now, but I don't think it will become named. Ryan1000 23:44, December 6, 2012 (UTC)